How Fire Danger Ratings and Total Fire Bans Are Decided

Published 2026-07-16 · Sources reviewed 2026-07-16

Two different decisions by two different bodies. Fire danger ratings come from the national AFDRS: the Bureau of Meteorology's weather forecasts are combined with fuel data to produce a Fire Behaviour Index and a rating per district. Total Fire Bans are then declared — or not — by each state's fire authority as a legal decision that weighs the forecast alongside local conditions and operational judgement. That's why an Extreme day isn't automatically a ban day, and why the same rating can mean different declarations in different states.

How ratings are calculated

Since 2022, all states and territories use the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS). The Bureau of Meteorology's forecast weather (temperature, humidity, wind, drought factor) is combined with vegetation and fuel-state data through fire behaviour models to produce a Fire Behaviour Index (FBI) for each fire weather district. The FBI maps to the four public ratings — Moderate (12–23), High (24–49), Extreme (50–99) and Catastrophic (100+) — with days below 12 shown as “No Rating”. Full ratings explainer.

How bans are declared

A Total Fire Ban is a legal instrument, not a model output. Each state's fire authority (NSW RFS, CFA, QFD, DFES, CFS, TFS, ESA, Bushfires NT) decides whether to declare one for each district or local government area, considering the forecast rating, wind changes, fuel dryness, ongoing fires and firefighting capacity. The declaration specifies the area and period and is published on the authority's official channels — which is where Fireban's data comes from.

Why Extreme ≠ automatic ban

Because the two decisions are separate, the mapping between them is policy, and it differs by jurisdiction. Some states routinely declare bans at Extreme; others weigh each day individually; a ban can even be declared on a High day ahead of a dangerous wind change. The practical consequence: never infer the legal position from the colour on the map — the rating tells you the danger, the declaration tells you the law. Both are shown, separately and with their own timestamps, on every Fireban state page.

When tomorrow's information becomes final

Ratings for the days ahead are forecasts and get revised as the weather forecast firms up — the official ratings for tomorrow are typically settled during the afternoon before, when authorities update their feeds for the next day. Ban declarations for tomorrow are usually announced the afternoon or evening before, and can occasionally be added or extended on the day if conditions deteriorate. That's why Fireban labels future days as forecast and shows future bans only once officially declared — a “Not yet declared” tomorrow is genuinely undecided, not “no ban”.

Check today and the outlook

Every state page shows today's ratings and declarations plus a three-day outlook, with the ban feed and rating feed timestamped independently:

Or start from the ratings explainer and the live national map.

Fireban aggregates official information and does not declare, issue or enforce fire bans. This guide is a plain-language summary, not legal advice — rules differ by state and change with conditions. The official sources linked above are always authoritative, and official instructions, emergency warnings, signage and ranger directions take precedence.